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Stock Pairs Trader

Stocks · Started Jul 2010

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-0.6%
Max Drawdown
65.9%
Trades
182
Win Trades
54.9%
Profit Factor
2.40
Win Months
53.6%

About this strategy

This trading system screens the universe of Russell 3000 stocks for matched stock pairs to go long and short. In this screening process, the automated computer system uses proprietary quantitative methods assembling 120,000 possible reasonable pairings of stocks in the Russell 3000 Index. Of these possible pairings, only a handful meet our strict criteria that decide which stock in the pair to go long and which stock to go short and when. When such a trading signal is generated, we immediately trade it with market orders, but you could use limit orders so long as you get filled within the same day.

Our stock pairs trading signal consists of simple instructions of the kind:

Buy 1000 shares of EQR, while
SIMULTANEOUSLY selling short 575 shares of VTR

You need to implement this trading signal by buying and selling both legs of the matched stock pair. You may execute the paired trading signal within a few hours of the system issuing the signal. It is very important to implement the two stock trades together on the same day, so as to derive the full benefit of the arbitrage potential in the stock pairing.

We will also provide you the closing signal on the trade pair, usually within a few days. Again, you must get out of the two legs together when your receive our exit signal.

Since there is plenty of time to implement the two trades, you can go about your business or hobbies without being glued to the financial markets. All you need to be able to do short selling is to open a margin account with your discount stock brokerage.

Or, to keep things really simple, automatic trading can be done in your brokerage accounts if you choose Autotrade in C2's systems.

I have been using this system successfully for 3 years before launching it publicly on C2. As you can see from its performance since July 22, 2010 on C2, the system has a very low drawdown. Following the trade signals given here is as good as parking your money in cash, while getting far better annual returns than cash which yields 0% in 2010. This has been achieved by designing this system to be quantitatively uncorrelated to the broad stock market. Currently, the correlation shown is 0.01, which means this system behaves almost independently to what the broad market does. Whether the broad market zigs or zags, this system clocks in its profit diligently.

The profit growth will appear to be painfully slow, especially in comparison to those futures based systems that seem to attract the most attention as "Hot Systems" on C2, but be aware that those systems will easily give you sleepless nights with drawdowns of more than 15%. this system's drawdown being less than 5%. Our motto is: the slow and steady win the race. We would rather be steady even if we are slow in increasing the equity curve shown. We believe in showing substance, and letting the sizzle-masters delude the crowds by creating multiple systems or with marketing hype. We only have one system which works well.

The system's "capacity" is very high, since the system only sifts through the very liquid US stocks in the Russell 3000, and they offer a huge amount of liquidity. This system's capacity should not be impacted by more participants being drawn in.

You can get more details on my instaBlog at

http://seekingalpha.com/author/rajeev-seth/instablog

and at my website on Quantitative Investments at:

http://www.beatindex.biz

Please feel free to email me at [email protected] if you have any questions or concerns before you subscribe to this system.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20103.3-0.12.9-1.4-0.8-1.32.4
20111.9-0.22.60.5-1.1-0.0-1.7-2.82.42.9-4.2-2.2-2.2
20122.90.6-0.0-0.5-2.01.6-0.10.13.0-0.30.30.05.7
20131.21.73.3-2.54.1-3.93.10.32.50.9-0.20.110.7
2014-1.11.82.6-3.6-2.3-5.2-1.71.6-1.41.51.01.6-5.5
2015-1.02.50.4-3.515.81.12.9-2.5-2.85.6-0.5-1.216.8
20162.5-0.11.52.3-1.42.32.6-3.3-0.0-8.42.2-7.2-7.5
20172.92.3-2.125.1-1.11.9-0.7-2.11.20.70.13.733.4
20180.5-4.2-1.80.3-0.4-0.43.92.6-1.1-2.31.3-6.8-8.5
20196.80.9-0.12.30.20.0-12.82.72.72.1-2.51.0
20200.20.6-15.74.7-0.70.61.30.50.9-4.53.60.4-9.3
20210.90.5-0.7-0.60.5-1.30.4-0.00.4-2.2-1.7-1.0-4.8
20222.9-2.4-4.71.40.7-1.6-0.6-6.23.43.415.70.211.1
20231.3-2.4-2.91.3-1.33.45.9-1.5-5.20.62.3-3.0-2.1
20241.7-7.02.2-0.1-5.0-10.21.04.8-1.43.51.83.7-6.1
2025-3.56.00.7-3.0-1.5-4.2-2.57.90.2-8.413.22.35.3
20261.2-2.7-7.5-12.6-35.04.331.513.4-17.5

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/22/2010
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age197 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades182
# Profitable100
% Profitable54.9%
Avg trade duration273.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown65.9%
drawdown periodApril 21, 2019 - June 19, 2026
Annual Return (Compounded)-0.6%
Avg win$1,367
Avg loss$1,995

Ratios

W:L ratio2.36
Sharpe Ratio0.01
Sortino Ratio0.01
Calmar Ratio0.03

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life609.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-617.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-0.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-0.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity77.8%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.5%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss46.7%
Chance of 30% account loss6.7%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$2,051
Avg Win$1,391
# Winners100
Sum Trade PL (losers)$168,151
Sum Trade PL (winners)$139,144
Num Months Winners105
# Losers82
% Winners55.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct21364

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table195

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1228944.38
Avg Position Time (hrs)20482.41
Avg Trade Length853.40
Last Trade Ago3895

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.05
Treynor Index0.01

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.03
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.04
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-7.45
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.21
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats38.16
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats47.80
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.40
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.56
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.10

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.06
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.26
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.26
df52
t0.56
p0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.20
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.67
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.19
Sortino ratio0.51
Upside Potential Ratio2.35
Upside part of mean0.26
Downside part of mean-0.20
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms28
N negative terms25
N of observations53
Mean of predictor0.42
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance0.01
r0.24
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.20
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error51
t(b)1.78
p(b)0.04
t(a)-0.26
p(a)0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)0.28
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
Mean0.04
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.18
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.17
df52
t0.37
p0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.11
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.76
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.11
Sortino ratio0.31
Upside Potential Ratio2.13
Upside part of mean0.24
Downside part of mean-0.21
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms28
N negative terms25
N of observations53
Mean of predictor0.38
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance0.01
r0.27
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.22
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.05
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error51
t(b)1.99
p(b)0.03
t(a)-0.48
p(a)0.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.16
Treynor index (mean / b)0.16
Jensen alpha (a)-0.05
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
Mean0.08
SD0.43
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.19
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.19
df1175
t0.41
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.73
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.12
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.73
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.12
Sortino ratio0.30
Upside Potential Ratio5.03
Upside part of mean1.41
Downside part of mean-1.32
Upside SD0.33
Downside SD0.28
N nonnegative terms556
N negative terms620
N of observations1176
Mean of predictor0.45
Mean of criterion0.08
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.43
Covariance0.00
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.19
DF error1174
t(b)1.15
p(b)0.48
t(a)0.30
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.47
Treynor index (mean / b)1.82
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
Mean-0.01
SD0.43
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.02
df1175
t-0.05
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.90
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.95
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.90
Sortino ratio-0.03
Upside Potential Ratio4.35
Upside part of mean1.36
Downside part of mean-1.37
Upside SD0.30
Downside SD0.31
N nonnegative terms556
N negative terms620
N of observations1176
Mean of predictor0.40
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.43
Covariance0.01
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0.19
DF error1174
t(b)1.26
p(b)0.48
t(a)-0.15
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.37
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.21
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.14
SD1.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.13
df130
t0.09
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.90
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.64
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.90
Sortino ratio0.19
Upside Potential Ratio5.80
Upside part of mean4.19
Downside part of mean-4.05
Upside SD0.79
Downside SD0.72
N nonnegative terms66
N negative terms65
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.37
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion1.08
Covariance-0.08
r-0.20
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.57
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.92
Mean Square Error1.12
DF error129
t(b)-2.28
p(b)0.62
t(a)0.60
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.96
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.24
Jensen alpha (a)0.92
Mean-0.44
SD1.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.40
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.40
df130
t-0.29
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.37
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.17
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.37
Sortino ratio-0.53
Upside Potential Ratio4.73
Upside part of mean3.92
Downside part of mean-4.36
Upside SD0.70
Downside SD0.83
N nonnegative terms66
N negative terms65
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.30
Mean of criterion-0.44
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion1.09
Covariance-0.08
r-0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.58
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.31
Mean Square Error1.16
DF error129
t(b)-2.24
p(b)0.62
t(a)0.20
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.09
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.77
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.39
Treynor index (mean / b)0.76
Jensen alpha (a)0.31
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.13
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations53
Minimum0.90
Quartile 10.98
Median1.00
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.27
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.08
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.91
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.17
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.07
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.27
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations1176
Minimum0.69
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.33
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low63
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high55
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.66
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.60
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations131
Minimum0.69
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.33
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low9
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.86
Number of outliers high9
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.73
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.23
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.79
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.21

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations8
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.05
Quartile 30.10
Maximum0.26
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.08
Mean of quarter 40.18
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.26
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations39
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.65
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.14
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high0.26
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.77
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.64
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.22
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations4
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.02
Quartile 30.17
Maximum0.62
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.62
Inter Quartile Range0.16
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high0.62
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-564114496
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)2616
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.07
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.07
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.25
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.35
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.60
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.02
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.02
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.03
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.13
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.33
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.37
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.34
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.54
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.54
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-2.58

Trading record

Placed 60 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
BMR short200Dec 30, 2010Jan 27, 2016($1,036)
SXT short252Jan 6, 2011Jan 12, 2011$570
SIAL long200Jan 6, 2011Jan 12, 2011($212)
CLI long200Jan 5, 2011Jan 12, 2011$270
DRE short227Jan 5, 2011Jan 12, 2011($98)
TCO short201Dec 8, 2010Jan 11, 2011($460)
REG short200Nov 26, 2010Jan 11, 2011$90
DEI long389Nov 26, 2010Jan 11, 2011$120
MAA short118Dec 20, 2010Jan 5, 2011$22
BRE long300Dec 17, 2010Jan 5, 2011$408
TMK long446Dec 28, 2010Jan 5, 2011$205
PFG short290Dec 28, 2010Jan 5, 2011($6)
DDR short290Dec 8, 2010Jan 5, 2011($96)
EQY long200Dec 8, 2010Jan 5, 2011$92
CLP long200Dec 30, 2010Dec 30, 2010$0
CNL long200Dec 23, 2010Dec 28, 2010$2
POR short410Dec 17, 2010Dec 28, 2010($8)
NU short233Dec 1, 2010Dec 28, 2010($82)
PNW long400Dec 1, 2010Dec 28, 2010$258
MAC long200Dec 16, 2010Dec 22, 2010$582
EPR long200Dec 22, 2010Dec 22, 2010($20)
AMB short226Dec 16, 2010Dec 22, 2010($254)
EGP short199Dec 20, 2010Dec 20, 2010($10)
CTS short209Dec 1, 2010Dec 17, 2010($111)
BHE long200Dec 1, 2010Dec 17, 2010$232
TE long200Nov 22, 2010Dec 8, 2010($10)
SCG short197Nov 22, 2010Dec 8, 2010$156
IM long120Nov 26, 2010Dec 8, 2010$65
TECD short128Nov 26, 2010Dec 8, 2010$52
PPS short259Nov 24, 2010Nov 24, 2010($0)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.